Report by CSIL
In the past decade, international trade in furniture has expanded at a faster pace than global furniture production, consistently accounting for around 1% of total international trade in manufactured goods. By 2019, the sector’s trade value had reached approximately US$ 151 billion. The outbreak of the pandemic in 2020 brought this upward trend to a halt, resulting in stagnation. However, 2021 marked a period of robust recovery and strong growth, only to be followed by another year of stagnation in 2022. In contrast, 2023 proved to be particularly challenging for the global furniture trade, which contracted by 9% in current US dollar terms, despite the inflationary context. Data for 2024 indicate a modest recovery, with the value of international furniture trade rising slightly in current US dollars to reach US$ 178 billion.
The outlook for global trade has deteriorated sharply due to a surge in tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. In recent months, tariffs have been announced, suspended, renegotiated, reintroduced, and suspended once more. In this constantly shifting environment, it is not only the tariffs themselves but also the uncertainty they generate that weighs heavily on global trade and investment decisions. Future prospects are negatively affected by the protectionist agenda of the new US administration. A decrease in world trade of furniture is expected in 2025.
The main furniture exporting country is China, followed at a distance by Vietnam, Poland, Italy, and Germany. After a major increase in 2021, China’s exports decreased substantially in 2022 and 2023, with a partial recovery in 2024. The leading furniture importers are the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the Netherlands (a trading hub). US furniture imports amounted to US$ 41 billion in 2024, representing about one quarter of global imports.
Out of the 100 countries analysed, 24 list the United States as their primary export destination. Among these, 10 countries export more than 50% of their total furniture shipments to the US market. Uncertainty in international trade policies could push countries to diversify their export markets, and, in particular, the disruption in US-China trade is likely to lead to substantial trade diversion, prompting concerns in third-party markets about heightened competition from Chinese exports. World GDP growth is expected to decline from an estimated 3.3 percent in 2024 to 2.8 percent in 2025, before rebounding to 3 percent in 2026. These projections represent downward revisions compared to earlier forecasts.
The widespread downgrades across countries are mainly due to the direct impact of new trade measures, as well as their indirect effects due to increased uncertainty, and weakening economic sentiment. Reduced household purchasing power due to high inflation and interest rates, tightening financing conditions, uncertainties in the economic, social and political context have affected furniture consumption in 2023 and 2024. In 2024, furniture consumption in current US dollars returned to nearly the same level as in 2019. For the world as a whole (100 countries), furniture consumption is expected to remain virtually unchanged in real terms in 2025, with a modest improvement in 2026.
International trade of furniture is in a state of unprecedented uncertainty. Trade policy and tariff unpredictability may continue. As a consequence, forecasts on consumption and international trade of furniture should be used with great caution, particularly for countries where the furniture sector is more open to international trade. Continuing uncertainty affects adversely the business climate for the furniture sector, particularly regarding investment decisions and household consumption behaviour.
World Furniture Outlook 2025/2026
Report by CSI
World Furniture Outlook is the CSIL flagship publication, issued twice a year, providing status and prospects of the world furniture sector.
For a detailed description, please visit here
